China and Russia have a long-standing strategic relationship, formally designated as a “comprehensive partnership of strategic coordination” since 1997. This special relationship between the two global powers has recently seen them cooperate in several areas, including military relations and economic ties. Both sides have affirmed their commitment to deepening their cooperation and forging a closer military partnership. In light of recent geopolitical developments, the question arises: why may China consider arming Russia?
The Consequences of American Unilateralism
In recent times, the global order has increasingly been shaped by American unilateralism. This doctrine was on full display during Donald Trump’s presidency, where he took a hard-line approach to traditional allies and pulled the U.S. out of a slew of global agreements, including the Paris Agreement on climate change, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear programme, and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty with Russia.
Increasingly burdened by unilateralism and a failure to meaningfully lead on major security challenges, the U.S. has been seen to rely primarily on hard power, with weapons being its primary tool of statecraft. This rhetoric has largely been met with disdain by the international community, with countries around the world citing U.S. unilateralism as an impediment to achieving a more stable and peaceful world order.
Russia, in particular, has felt the brunt of this unwarranted “America first” approach and has had to deal with a complete overhaul of both its foreign and domestic policies due to pressure from the U.S. While Moscow has tried its best to comply with Washington’s demands, it has become increasingly clear that the U.S. is unwilling to reach any sort of diplomatic resolution with the Russian government. This, in turn, has caused Moscow to turn to its traditional ally, China, in its time of need.
China’s Geostrategic Position
Geopolitically, China has found itself in a unique position. On the one hand the nation is part of the world’s biggest trading block, the Eurasian Economic Union; on the other, it has been mired in a trade war with the U.S. that has resulted in Beijing shifting its foreign policy to be more open and multi-dimensional. This has resulted in China’s active promotion of the idea of “the shared destiny of all mankind” and its vigorous participation in international economic negotiations and institutions.
From a security standpoint, the Chinese government has long emphasized the importance of strategic self-reliance and avoided being drawn into military or other foreign entanglements that do not directly affect its national interests. Despite this, China appears to be willing to support the efforts of other countries when the situation so warrants. Recent comments from the Chinese Foreign Ministry that condemned unilateralism and the “unreasonable deployment of pressure” has been seen as a clear departure from its long-standing policy of strategic reticence.
Reasons Why China May Arm Russia
Given the current geopolitical conditions and its strategic relationship with Russia, it is worth exploring the factors that may be influencing China to consider arming the latter.
Balancing American Unilateralism
The dawn of a new era of American unilateralism has seen conventional military power return to the global stage. The current administration in Washington has prioritized hard power over diplomatic solutions and attempts to appear as a strong regional leader.
Meanwhile, China has been vocal in its opposition to the United States’ approach, condemning unilateralism and the use of sanctions. Incoming Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi recently criticized the U.S. for its hypocritical approach, stating “imagining one’s own country is superior and has the right to lead play games of power politics with other countries is outdated”¹.
Beijing is likely to view the arming of Russia as a necessary counter-measure to curb the U.S.’s excessive display of power and maintain the balance of power in Eurasia. China may believe that by arming Moscow, the need for excessive military spending by the U.S., Japan and the other NATO members, will be minimised.
Realpolitik and Volatility in Asia
Political realists would contend that arming Russia insulates China from the potential consequences of American unilateralism in Eurasia and allows it to remain on more equal footing with countries in its region. Considering the volatile nature of the geopolitical environment in Asia, it makes sense for China to arm Russia as a key ally, to ensure that its interests are safeguarded.
Furthermore, recent developments in the Indo-Pacific region, including the intensifying territorial claims in East and Southeast Asia, and the ongoing trade disputes, signify China’s desire to ensure its security and defend its interests in an increasingly contentious geopolitical environment.
The Benefits of Greater Strategic Autonomy
Arming Russia in order to counter unilateral U.S. foreign policy can go a long way in helping to realize China’s desire to create a more equal, cooperative and open international system that adheres to the principles of multilateralism and mutual benefit.
The move would also provide China greater strategic autonomy. This would come in the form of increased flexibility to act independently of the U.S. on a variety of global issues, and a stronger position in regional crises, such as issues in the South China Sea.
The Arms Market & Collaboration Opportunities
Moreover, there is a business aspect that makes arms sales an attractive option for both countries. Russia is one of the world’s largest suppliers of arms and is thus a key market for Chinese arms manufacturers.
Arming Russia gives China an opportunity to enter the lucrative arms market, positioning it to compete with other Western military powerhouses, such as the U.S., for lucrative deals.
Finally, arming Russia could also provide Beijing with a platform to engage in further collaboration opportunities. Beijing and Moscow may consider joint research in weapons development and share technology. Such cooperation could give China a competitive advantage in the technological arms race.
In short, China has a real need to arm Russia, both to counter American unilateralism and to maintain an advantageous strategic position in the volatile environment in Asia. Considering the array of tangible and intangible benefits that come with the decision, it is clear that arming Russia has a lot to offer Beijing in terms of increasing its security, autonomy, and position in the arms market. Thus, it is logical to assume that China may consider arming Russia as a viable option to further its security interests in the near term.
